Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Why the 1% Rule Is Broken in 2026 — and What to Use Instead
The 1% rule was a useful back-of-the-napkin filter when median home prices were half what they are today. In 2026, it systematically rejects appreciating metros and steers investors toward stagnant tertiary markets with hidden capex risk. Here is a cash-flow and break-even-IRR framework that survives across rate regimes.
The 2026 Housing Market Outlook: Rates, Inventory, and the Buyer's Return
The 2026 housing market is splitting into two distinct regimes: supply-constrained metros where prices remain sticky, and Sun-Belt markets where inventory build-up is creating genuine buyer leverage. Mortgage rates have settled roughly 150 basis points below their 2024 peak, unlocking transaction volume that was frozen for 18 months. For individual investors, the question is no longer whether to buy, but where the deal-flow environment actually favors patient capital.