Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Category: data-analysis · clear
Large-Box Industrial Just Hit 11.5% Vacancy. Small-Bay Is at 5.2%. Here's the $28.6 Billion Trade Smart Money Is Making Right Now.
National industrial real estate looks messy at 7.5% vacancy — until you separate large-box warehouses (11.5% vacant, oversupplied) from small-bay multi-tenant properties (5.2% vacant, rents up 40% since 2020). This article breaks down the data behind the split, explains why small-bay is a structurally different investment, and shows investors how to find, underwrite, and close deals in the most overlooked corner of commercial real estate.
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Housing Risk Rankings Are Out. Florida and California Dominate — and Some 2021 Darlings Made the List.
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Special Housing Risk Report just dropped, and Florida and California counties dominate the most financially exposed markets in America. This breakdown covers the four-factor composite risk model (foreclosure rate, underwater mortgages, affordability ratio, unemployment), names the specific counties investors need to know about, flags the four mistakes investors make when reading this data, and provides five PropGPT workflows to pressure-test any deal in a high-risk county before you commit.
Zillow's 2026 Breakeven Map: In These 5 Cities, Buying Beats Renting in Under 5 Years — and 3 Cities Where It Never Does
A new Zillow study pinpoints exactly how long buyers need to hold a home before ownership beats renting, city by city. In Columbus, Ohio, it's 4.1 years. In San Francisco, it never happens. This data-driven breakdown shows where the buy signal is strong, where it's non-existent, and how to use PropGPT to find the specific zip codes that deliver on the numbers.
Housing Inventory Just Flipped Negative Year-Over-Year. Investors: Your Negotiating Window Is Closing.
In the week of May 22–29, 2026, housing inventory tracked by HousingWire turned negative year-over-year for the first time since the rate-driven inventory surge began — even with mortgage rates at their 2026 peak of 6.77%. Redfin's April data shows prices up 2.4% and pending sales at the highest level since February 2023. This article breaks down what the data means for investors who have been counting on a buyer's market that is quietly ending.
The Housing Market Just Split in Two: Where Smart Investors Are Putting Money in May 2026
The national housing market average is masking a 14-point performance gap: San Francisco up 10.7%, Detroit up 10.1%, Dallas down 3.8%, Seattle down 3.3%. We break down what's driving the structural split, which metros are worth buying in right now, and the four mistakes investors make when they rely on national headlines instead of city-level data.
5 Midwest Cities Are Generating 9%+ Rental Yields in 2026 — While Sun Belt Investors Are Stuck
Midwest rental markets are quietly outperforming the Sun Belt in 2026, with Cleveland posting ~9.8% gross yields and Indianapolis at ~9.1% — while Florida's Gulf Coast wrestles with insurance crises and price declines. This data-driven breakdown shows exactly where cash flow lives today, why the shift is structural, and how to run the numbers yourself with PropGPT.
Single-Family Rentals Are Beating Multifamily by a Record 26.7% Margin — Here's the City-by-City Data and What to Buy
National multifamily vacancy hit 7.3% — a multi-decade record — while single-family rental rents grew 2.4% YoY in March 2026. The rent gap between SFR and apartment buildings has widened to a record 26.7%, driven by a 38-year-high construction wave swamping Sun Belt markets. This article breaks down the metro-by-metro data, explains the structural reasons the divide will last through 2027, flags the common underwriting mistakes investors are making, and gives five PropGPT prompts to analyze any SFR vs. multifamily decision in minutes.
Sellers Are Bleeding in Florida and Texas. Here's the Investor's City-by-City Buying Map.
Fresh Redfin data reveals 43-46% of active listings in Florida and Texas metros have cut their asking prices, with Cape Coral down 9% year-over-year and Austin off 18-20% from peak. This breakdown covers which markets have the most investor leverage right now, what's driving the selloff in each state, the key financing numbers to underwrite deals today, and five PropGPT workflows to find the best ZIP codes and model your cash flow before you make an offer.
Mortgage Rates Just Jumped to 6.21%. Here's the Cash-Flow Math That Still Makes Rentals Work in 2026.
The 30-year fixed rate hit 6.21% on May 1 as PCE inflation reached 3.5% and oil prices spiked on U.S.-Iran tensions. Most rental deals underwritten last month no longer pencil — but DSCR loans at 6.12%, Midwest cash-flow markets, and seller concessions are keeping deals alive. This guide shows the exact math, the loan products investors are actually using, and five PropGPT prompts to stress-test any deal in the new rate environment.
The 2026 Housing Market Nobody Predicted: Sun Belt Prices Are Cratering While Midwest Cities Hit All-Time Highs
The Sun Belt trade has broken down: Cape Coral is down 9.6%, Austin is off 27.8% from its peak, and Miami carries nearly a year of unsold inventory. Meanwhile, Kansas City posted +8.6% year-over-year gains, Toledo earned the #4 hottest market ranking nationally, and Cleveland remains one of the only major U.S. cities where owning a home is cheaper than renting. This piece maps the reversal with current Redfin, Fortune, and Freddie Mac data — and shows you exactly how to use PropGPT to screen Midwest deals before the rest of the market catches up.
Where Institutional Buyers Are Retreating — and What It Means for Individual Investors
The largest single-family rental operators have shifted from aggressive acquisition to portfolio optimization, with net selling in several Sun Belt metros through 2025. This piece maps where institutional capital is retreating, where it's still active, and why individual investors should care. Included: a PropGPT prompt to measure institutional concentration in any ZIP.