Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Category: data-analysis · clear
Real Estate Just Beat the S&P 500 by 11 Points. The Same Week, the Housing Market Had Its Worst Week Since 2022.
REIT total returns hit roughly 20% year to date through late July, beating the S&P 500 by about 11 points, while Redfin's newest weekly data shows pending home sales just posted their steepest drop since 2022. This piece breaks down the sector-by-sector REIT data driving the rally, the NAV discount that hasn't closed yet, and what it means for where individual investors should actually be putting money right now.
In San Jose, Owning Costs $8,593 More a Month Than Renting. In Pittsburgh, the Gap Is $1.
Zumper's 2026 Rent vs. Buy report puts a hard dollar figure on the gap between owning and renting in 83 U.S. metros. San Jose owners pay $8,593 more a month than renters for the same house; in Pittsburgh, the gap is a single dollar. This piece breaks down the price-to-rent ratio every investor should check before comps, shows which coastal markets have priced themselves out of being rentals, and flags the Rust Belt metros where the math still works.
Wall Street Isn't “Buying Up All the Homes” Anymore — Mega Investors Just Hit a 14-Year Low, and Small Investors Own 63% of What's Left
New 2025 purchase data from Realtor.com shows mega investors at their lowest market share since 2011, down nearly 70% from their 2021 peak, while small investors (1-10 purchases a year) now make up 63% of investor buying. Cross-referencing metro-level investor density with Realtor.com's 2026 growth forecast turns up a market — Hartford, CT — with the best projected growth in the country and some of the thinnest investor competition.
Foreclosures Are Up 21% This Year — In Texas You Can Close a Deal in 155 Days. In Louisiana, It Takes 3,491.
U.S. foreclosure filings rose 21% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, but the real investor signal is in the details: fastest-growing distress in states like Idaho and Colorado, and a 22x gap between the quickest (Texas, 155 days) and slowest (Louisiana, 3,491 days) foreclosure timelines nationwide. This piece breaks down where distressed inventory is actually turning into buyable deals — and how to screen for it with PropGPT.
Build-To-Rent Construction Fell 26% Over a Rule That Never Made It Into Law
Single-family build-to-rent starts fell 26% in Q1 2026 as developers priced in a Senate mandate that would have forced them to sell every rental home within seven years. Congress stripped that provision from the final ROAD to Housing Act before it became law on July 11 — but the construction pullback hasn't reversed. Here's the data on where the gap is, and how to find the markets and stalled land it created.
Elgin, Illinois Home Prices Rose 10.8% This Year. Austin's Fell 6.9%. Federal Data Confirms the Great Reversal.
Federal Housing Finance Agency data released this spring shows the Midwest and Northeast quietly out-appreciating the Sun Belt markets everyone's still chasing, while Cleveland and Chicago-area metros are also beating them on rental yield. Here's the state-by-state and metro-by-metro breakdown, and how to screen PropGPT for the overlap markets winning on both fronts.
San Francisco Rents Are Up 22% This Year — Mesa, Arizona Is Down 7%. New Data Shows the 'National Rent Recovery' Is a Myth
New July 2026 rent reports from Zumper and Apartment List show the 'national rent recovery' headline is masking a massive split: supply-starved coastal metros like San Francisco are re-accelerating into double-digit rent growth while oversupplied Sun Belt markets like Phoenix and Austin are still falling. This piece breaks down the metro-level data investors need to underwrite rent growth correctly in 2026 — and the mistakes landlords make when they apply national averages to local deals.
242 U.S. Cities Now Have $1 Million 'Starter Homes.' Here's Where Investors Can Still Buy One for $120,000.
Zillow just confirmed that 242 U.S. cities now have 'starter homes' priced above $1 million, nearly triple the pre-pandemic count. But the same data shows real sub-$150,000 entry points still exist in Birmingham, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Memphis. Here's how to use that split to find your next deal instead of your next headline.
Government Red Tape Added $132,000 to Every New Home Built in 2026. Here's Why That's a Long-Term Landlord's Secret Weapon.
NAHB's June 2026 study reveals government regulations now add $131,734 to every new U.S. home — a 40% increase in five years, compounding at more than twice the pace of income growth. This breakdown explains why the 1.2-million-unit housing deficit isn't closing, what that means for long-term rent growth, and the PropGPT prompts investors can use to identify supply-constrained markets where existing rental inventory has a durable competitive advantage.
Large-Box Industrial Just Hit 11.5% Vacancy. Small-Bay Is at 5.2%. Here's the $28.6 Billion Trade Smart Money Is Making Right Now.
National industrial real estate looks messy at 7.5% vacancy — until you separate large-box warehouses (11.5% vacant, oversupplied) from small-bay multi-tenant properties (5.2% vacant, rents up 40% since 2020). This article breaks down the data behind the split, explains why small-bay is a structurally different investment, and shows investors how to find, underwrite, and close deals in the most overlooked corner of commercial real estate.
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Housing Risk Rankings Are Out. Florida and California Dominate — and Some 2021 Darlings Made the List.
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Special Housing Risk Report just dropped, and Florida and California counties dominate the most financially exposed markets in America. This breakdown covers the four-factor composite risk model (foreclosure rate, underwater mortgages, affordability ratio, unemployment), names the specific counties investors need to know about, flags the four mistakes investors make when reading this data, and provides five PropGPT workflows to pressure-test any deal in a high-risk county before you commit.