Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Category: data-analysis · clear
Foreclosures Are Up 21% This Year — In Texas You Can Close a Deal in 155 Days. In Louisiana, It Takes 3,491.
U.S. foreclosure filings rose 21% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, but the real investor signal is in the details: fastest-growing distress in states like Idaho and Colorado, and a 22x gap between the quickest (Texas, 155 days) and slowest (Louisiana, 3,491 days) foreclosure timelines nationwide. This piece breaks down where distressed inventory is actually turning into buyable deals — and how to screen for it with PropGPT.
Build-To-Rent Construction Fell 26% Over a Rule That Never Made It Into Law
Single-family build-to-rent starts fell 26% in Q1 2026 as developers priced in a Senate mandate that would have forced them to sell every rental home within seven years. Congress stripped that provision from the final ROAD to Housing Act before it became law on July 11 — but the construction pullback hasn't reversed. Here's the data on where the gap is, and how to find the markets and stalled land it created.
Elgin, Illinois Home Prices Rose 10.8% This Year. Austin's Fell 6.9%. Federal Data Confirms the Great Reversal.
Federal Housing Finance Agency data released this spring shows the Midwest and Northeast quietly out-appreciating the Sun Belt markets everyone's still chasing, while Cleveland and Chicago-area metros are also beating them on rental yield. Here's the state-by-state and metro-by-metro breakdown, and how to screen PropGPT for the overlap markets winning on both fronts.
San Francisco Rents Are Up 22% This Year — Mesa, Arizona Is Down 7%. New Data Shows the 'National Rent Recovery' Is a Myth
New July 2026 rent reports from Zumper and Apartment List show the 'national rent recovery' headline is masking a massive split: supply-starved coastal metros like San Francisco are re-accelerating into double-digit rent growth while oversupplied Sun Belt markets like Phoenix and Austin are still falling. This piece breaks down the metro-level data investors need to underwrite rent growth correctly in 2026 — and the mistakes landlords make when they apply national averages to local deals.
242 U.S. Cities Now Have $1 Million 'Starter Homes.' Here's Where Investors Can Still Buy One for $120,000.
Zillow just confirmed that 242 U.S. cities now have 'starter homes' priced above $1 million, nearly triple the pre-pandemic count. But the same data shows real sub-$150,000 entry points still exist in Birmingham, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Memphis. Here's how to use that split to find your next deal instead of your next headline.
Government Red Tape Added $132,000 to Every New Home Built in 2026. Here's Why That's a Long-Term Landlord's Secret Weapon.
NAHB's June 2026 study reveals government regulations now add $131,734 to every new U.S. home — a 40% increase in five years, compounding at more than twice the pace of income growth. This breakdown explains why the 1.2-million-unit housing deficit isn't closing, what that means for long-term rent growth, and the PropGPT prompts investors can use to identify supply-constrained markets where existing rental inventory has a durable competitive advantage.
Large-Box Industrial Just Hit 11.5% Vacancy. Small-Bay Is at 5.2%. Here's the $28.6 Billion Trade Smart Money Is Making Right Now.
National industrial real estate looks messy at 7.5% vacancy — until you separate large-box warehouses (11.5% vacant, oversupplied) from small-bay multi-tenant properties (5.2% vacant, rents up 40% since 2020). This article breaks down the data behind the split, explains why small-bay is a structurally different investment, and shows investors how to find, underwrite, and close deals in the most overlooked corner of commercial real estate.
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Housing Risk Rankings Are Out. Florida and California Dominate — and Some 2021 Darlings Made the List.
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Special Housing Risk Report just dropped, and Florida and California counties dominate the most financially exposed markets in America. This breakdown covers the four-factor composite risk model (foreclosure rate, underwater mortgages, affordability ratio, unemployment), names the specific counties investors need to know about, flags the four mistakes investors make when reading this data, and provides five PropGPT workflows to pressure-test any deal in a high-risk county before you commit.
Zillow's 2026 Breakeven Map: In These 5 Cities, Buying Beats Renting in Under 5 Years — and 3 Cities Where It Never Does
A new Zillow study pinpoints exactly how long buyers need to hold a home before ownership beats renting, city by city. In Columbus, Ohio, it's 4.1 years. In San Francisco, it never happens. This data-driven breakdown shows where the buy signal is strong, where it's non-existent, and how to use PropGPT to find the specific zip codes that deliver on the numbers.
Housing Inventory Just Flipped Negative Year-Over-Year. Investors: Your Negotiating Window Is Closing.
In the week of May 22–29, 2026, housing inventory tracked by HousingWire turned negative year-over-year for the first time since the rate-driven inventory surge began — even with mortgage rates at their 2026 peak of 6.77%. Redfin's April data shows prices up 2.4% and pending sales at the highest level since February 2023. This article breaks down what the data means for investors who have been counting on a buyer's market that is quietly ending.
The Housing Market Just Split in Two: Where Smart Investors Are Putting Money in May 2026
The national housing market average is masking a 14-point performance gap: San Francisco up 10.7%, Detroit up 10.1%, Dallas down 3.8%, Seattle down 3.3%. We break down what's driving the structural split, which metros are worth buying in right now, and the four mistakes investors make when they rely on national headlines instead of city-level data.