Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Home Prices Just Hit an All-Time High of $440,600 — and Your Mortgage Payment Rose for the First Time in 8 Months
NAR's June existing-home-sales report and Redfin's latest weekly update both dropped this week, and together they show something neither tells alone: prices at record highs, inventory growth stalling, and the median mortgage payment rising for the first time in eight months. Here's what it means for how you underwrite the next 90 days of deals.
Home Prices Rose 0.8% This Year. You Still Lost Money.
April's Case-Shiller data shows nominal home prices up just 0.8% year-over-year — but with inflation running hotter, real home values have now fallen for 11 straight months. Here's the metro-by-metro breakdown, why the national headline is masking a Chicago-vs-Seattle split, and how to underwrite deals on real returns instead of a number that's quietly lying to you.
Airbnb Grew 52%. This Rental Strategy Grew 136% — and Almost Nobody's Talking About It
New joint data from Furnished Finder and AirDNA shows mid-term rentals (30-89 day furnished stays for travel nurses, relocating families, and corporate contractors) grew 136% since 2019 — 2.6x faster than short-term rentals — while mostly avoiding the STR regulatory crackdowns hitting Airbnb hosts nationwide. Readers get the underlying numbers, the tenant demand drivers, and a due-diligence playbook for underwriting a property as an MTR instead of a standard lease or Airbnb.
San Francisco Rents Are Up 22% This Year — Mesa, Arizona Is Down 7%. New Data Shows the 'National Rent Recovery' Is a Myth
New July 2026 rent reports from Zumper and Apartment List show the 'national rent recovery' headline is masking a massive split: supply-starved coastal metros like San Francisco are re-accelerating into double-digit rent growth while oversupplied Sun Belt markets like Phoenix and Austin are still falling. This piece breaks down the metro-level data investors need to underwrite rent growth correctly in 2026 — and the mistakes landlords make when they apply national averages to local deals.
The DOJ Is About to Pay Landlords $1 Billion for COVID Eviction Losses — the Deadline to Join Is This September
The DOJ is negotiating a roughly $1 billion settlement with landlords over lost rental income during the 2020-2021 CDC eviction moratorium, after a federal appeals court found the ban may have violated the Fifth Amendment's Takings Clause. The statute of limitations to join the case closes in early September 2026 — here's the legal backstory, the real numbers behind the payout, and how to check whether your own losses from that period could still be worth claiming.
Florida Voters Are About to Give Homeowners a $250,000 Tax Exemption — Investors Could Get Stuck With the $12 Billion Bill
Florida's Amendment 3 slashes property taxes for homesteaded homeowners while quietly changing the rules for rental and commercial property owners. State economists project a $12 billion annual revenue hole by year five, and investors, who already generate 64% of Florida's property tax revenue, are the most likely place counties turn to fill it. Here's what the bill actually does, and how to model your exposure before the November 3 vote.
Only 21% of Investors Look Off-Market First — New Data Shows the Other 79% Are Losing the Best Deals
A Q4 2025 investor survey and a separate OfferMarket poll reveal that while only 21% of investors say they look off-market first, 40% of recent purchases actually came from off-market sources — nearly double the rate of investor attention. Here's what the data shows, the mistakes investors make chasing off-market deals, and how to build an off-market pipeline with PropGPT.
The FBI Just Warned That Scammers Are Selling Vacant Land They Don't Own — 62% of Title Fraud Now Targets Deals Just Like Yours
The FBI just issued a fresh nationwide alert: criminals are impersonating vacant landowners, forging deeds, and selling property they don't legally own. This piece breaks down exactly how the scam works, the hard numbers behind it (62% of title fraud now targets vacant land), and a PropGPT-powered verification workflow that catches it before you wire a dollar.
Two Housing Reports Just Dropped. Both Say Prices Moved 2.5%. One Means a Crash, the Other a Record High.
Realtor.com and Redfin published contradictory national price reports one day apart this week, both citing a 2.5% year-over-year move in opposite directions. Here's why they're both right, why four sources quoted mortgage rates 37 basis points apart the same week, and how to pull the local ask-vs-sold data that actually matters for your next offer.
House Flipping Margins Just Snapped a 7-Quarter Losing Streak — Here's Why Pittsburgh Investors Are Clearing 85.9% While Austin Flippers Get 2%
ATTOM's Q1 2026 Home Flipping Report shows profit margins rose for the first time in seven straight quarters, snapping a two-year slide — but the 25.4% national average hides a massive split: some metros are clearing 85.9% ROI while others barely break even. This piece breaks down where the real flipping money is in 2026, the price tier quietly outperforming everything else, and how to screen for it before the next investor does.
242 U.S. Cities Now Have $1 Million 'Starter Homes.' Here's Where Investors Can Still Buy One for $120,000.
Zillow just confirmed that 242 U.S. cities now have 'starter homes' priced above $1 million, nearly triple the pre-pandemic count. But the same data shows real sub-$150,000 entry points still exist in Birmingham, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Memphis. Here's how to use that split to find your next deal instead of your next headline.