Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Category: hot-takes · clear
Hartford, CT Just Beat Phoenix for Real Estate Returns. Here's What That Tells You About 2026.
The Sun Belt markets that dominated real estate investing from 2020 to 2023 have quietly collapsed in the rankings — Phoenix, Austin, and Dallas aren't even in the top 15 anymore. Hartford, CT just took the number one spot, driven by inventory running 63% below pre-pandemic levels and cap rates of 6-7% that actually make the math work at current mortgage rates. This piece breaks down the supply data behind the shift, why Sun Belt cap rates are now a negative-leverage trap, and exactly how to use PropGPT to evaluate deals in unfamiliar Northeast markets.
Mid-Term Rentals Are Out-Earning Airbnb on Net Income — Here's the 2026 Data Investors Are Missing
While Airbnb operators fight for 55% occupancy and hand 15% to the platform before expenses start, mid-term rental operators are running 80–95% occupancy at half the operating cost — and generating higher net income on identical properties. This piece breaks down the full STR vs. MTR vs. LTR comparison with 2026 data, maps the highest-demand markets, flags the four mistakes that sink new MTR investors, and gives five PropGPT prompts to underwrite, price, and source tenants for any mid-term rental.
The Tariff Effect: Why Rising Construction Costs Are a Hidden Windfall for Real Estate Investors
Tariffs have added up to $17,500 per new home in construction costs and are projected to eliminate 450,000 housing units over five years. For investors who already hold rental inventory, that supply squeeze is a tailwind — and this piece breaks down exactly how to position for it with concrete market data and PropGPT workflows.
Fix-and-Flip Investors Are Twice as Bullish as Landlords in 2026 — Here's the Data Behind the Gap
A Scotsman Guide investor survey found 52% of fix-and-flip investors expect market conditions to improve in 2026, compared to only 26% of rental investors — a 26-point confidence gap that reveals fundamentally different market dynamics playing out by strategy type. This piece unpacks exactly why flippers are thriving in Sun Belt price-correction markets while landlords face compressed cap rates, rental oversupply, and financing headwinds that make new acquisitions hard to pencil. You'll come away with a clear framework for which strategy fits your market right now, and five PropGPT prompts to run the actual numbers on your next deal.
STR Investors Are Panic-Selling in Oversupplied Markets — Here's the Playbook to Buy Their Exit
National STR occupancy has slipped from 57% to 50–54% as Phoenix listings hit 21,000+ and Dallas absorbed 6,000 new units since 2020. The investors who modeled 70% occupancy and overpaid in 2021 are now selling — and that's not a warning signal, it's a buying window. This piece maps the oversupplied markets to avoid, the undersupplied leisure markets still generating $115K–$216K annually, and five PropGPT prompts to screen, underwrite, and target distressed STR sellers.
Why the 1% Rule Is Broken in 2026 — and What to Use Instead
The 1% rule was a useful back-of-the-napkin filter when median home prices were half what they are today. In 2026, it systematically rejects appreciating metros and steers investors toward stagnant tertiary markets with hidden capex risk. Here is a cash-flow and break-even-IRR framework that survives across rate regimes.