Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
1 in 3 Spring Sellers Are Finally Giving Up Their Sub-5% Mortgage. Here's the Investor Playbook.
A Coldwell Banker survey of 727 agents found 35% of spring 2026 sellers hold sub-5% mortgage rates and are listing anyway. With active inventory at 964,000 listings — up 8% year-over-year — and pending sales rising for the second straight month, the rate lock-in effect is finally cracking. This piece maps where the unlock is happening fastest, how to target extended-market-time listings where seller psychology is shifting, and when to have the subject-to conversation that most buyers never even attempt.
The 2026 Housing Market Nobody Predicted: Sun Belt Prices Are Cratering While Midwest Cities Hit All-Time Highs
The Sun Belt trade has broken down: Cape Coral is down 9.6%, Austin is off 27.8% from its peak, and Miami carries nearly a year of unsold inventory. Meanwhile, Kansas City posted +8.6% year-over-year gains, Toledo earned the #4 hottest market ranking nationally, and Cleveland remains one of the only major U.S. cities where owning a home is cheaper than renting. This piece maps the reversal with current Redfin, Fortune, and Freddie Mac data — and shows you exactly how to use PropGPT to screen Midwest deals before the rest of the market catches up.
Tariffs Just Added $9,200 to Every New Home Build. Here's How Flippers and BRRRR Investors Need to Recalculate.
As of April 2026, tariffs have added an estimated $9,200 to the average cost of constructing a new single-family home, per NAHB. For flippers and BRRRR investors, that means lumber up 25%, drywall up 25%, and kitchen appliances up 20% — all quietly eroding MAO and refinance math. This piece breaks down the specific line-item impacts, shows the new numbers on a $250K ARV flip, and gives you five PropGPT prompts to recalibrate any deal in your pipeline.
Where Institutional Buyers Are Retreating — and What It Means for Individual Investors
The largest single-family rental operators have shifted from aggressive acquisition to portfolio optimization, with net selling in several Sun Belt metros through 2025. This piece maps where institutional capital is retreating, where it's still active, and why individual investors should care. Included: a PropGPT prompt to measure institutional concentration in any ZIP.
Screen 500 Properties in 30 Minutes: A PropGPT Buy-Box Walkthrough
Screening hundreds of listings in a legacy portal is a full afternoon of tab juggling. With a well-defined buy-box and three structured prompts, PropGPT can return a ranked shortlist with owner records and equity estimates in under half an hour. This walkthrough shows exactly how to do it, with prompts you can paste directly into the chat.
Why the 1% Rule Is Broken in 2026 — and What to Use Instead
The 1% rule was a useful back-of-the-napkin filter when median home prices were half what they are today. In 2026, it systematically rejects appreciating metros and steers investors toward stagnant tertiary markets with hidden capex risk. Here is a cash-flow and break-even-IRR framework that survives across rate regimes.
The 2026 Housing Market Outlook: Rates, Inventory, and the Buyer's Return
The 2026 housing market is splitting into two distinct regimes: supply-constrained metros where prices remain sticky, and Sun-Belt markets where inventory build-up is creating genuine buyer leverage. Mortgage rates have settled roughly 150 basis points below their 2024 peak, unlocking transaction volume that was frozen for 18 months. For individual investors, the question is no longer whether to buy, but where the deal-flow environment actually favors patient capital.