Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
The Census Bureau Says New Home Sales Cratered 10.5%. Its Own Footnote Says That Might Be Zero.
The Census Bureau's July new home sales report shows a 10.5% monthly drop — but its own 90% confidence interval says that number could actually be anywhere from -24.5% to +3.5%, statistically indistinguishable from zero. We break down which numbers in the release are real (a confirmed Midwest collapse, a confirmed rise in builder inventory) and which are noise the entire housing press ran with anyway.
Zillow Paid $100 Million to Make Its Only Rival Disappear. Prices Rose 14.5%. The 'Fix' Doesn't Land Until 2027.
The FTC ruled this week that Zillow's 2025 deal to pay Redfin $100 million to exit the rental-listing market was an illegal payoff that drove ad prices up 14.5%. The settlement forces Redfin back into the business — but not for six months, and real competition doesn't show up until 2027. Here's why property managers and investors shouldn't underwrite relief that hasn't arrived yet.
Treasury Just Spent $4 Billion to Fix Your Mortgage Rate. The Relief Lasted One Day.
On August 19, Treasury doubled its long-bond buyback size to $4 billion to fight rising yields, and mortgage-linked rates dipped immediately. By August 20, yields had already rebounded. This piece breaks down the mechanism (a short-term-debt-funded swap, not new money), what economists are calling it ("symbolic," a "very small-scale Operation Twist"), and why investors shouldn't underwrite deals on the assumption that relief is coming.
Home Equity Hit $18 Trillion This Quarter. In Cape Coral, 1 in 9 Homeowners Owe More Than Their House Is Worth.
ICE's August 2026 Mortgage Monitor reported a record $18 trillion in U.S. mortgage holder equity — and, in the same release, a 44% year-over-year jump in underwater borrowers concentrated in Texas and Florida. Here's how to find the specific FHA/VA, 2022-2025-vintage buyers behind that number before the rest of the market catches on.
U.S. Homebuyers Just Hit a Record Low. In Miami, Sellers Outnumber Them by 154% — That's Not a Crash, It's Leverage.
Redfin just recorded the lowest homebuyer count on record while sellers outnumber buyers by 51.3% nationally and up to 154% in Miami. Everyone's reading that as a warning sign — here's why it's actually the widest negotiating window investors have had since before rates spiked in 2022, and how to find the sellers already blinking.
Data Centers Grew 46% This Year. Housing Construction Shrank 3.2%. That's Not a Warning Sign — It's Your Moat.
The June 2026 Census construction report shows total spending down 3.2% year over year while data center construction grew 46% — the same trades that would build your rental's competition are booked out on server farms instead. Here's what that supply gap means for rent growth in the metros absorbing the heaviest data center buildout, and how to screen for them.
Home Sales Just Had Their Best Month of 2026. Zillow's Own Economist Says That Was the Top.
Zillow reported its best sales month of 2026 in July, then its own chief economist called it the peak. Newly pending listings are basically flat, mortgage rates just hit a one-year high, and NAR and Redfin data confirm the pipeline behind the headline is drying up — here's what that means for how you underwrite deals through year-end.
Everyone's Watching Florida for the Next Foreclosure Wave. The Data Says Watch Idaho and Colorado Instead.
ATTOM's Mid-Year 2026 report shows foreclosures up 21% nationally, and the CEO calls it normalization. But the states with the worst foreclosure rates (Florida, South Carolina, Indiana) aren't the states with the fastest growth (Idaho, Colorado, Georgia) — and that gap is where the real deal flow is forming. This piece breaks down the two lists, the cost drivers behind the growth-rate states, and five PropGPT workflows for screening pre-foreclosure and zombie-foreclosure inventory before the crowd catches on.
The White House Says We're Short 10 Million Homes. The Census Bureau's Own Numbers Say the Opposite Is Happening.
The White House's 10-million-home shortage figure has become investor gospel, but it's the outlier among housing economists — and the Census Bureau's own Q2 2026 survey shows homeowner and rental vacancy rates both climbing for three straight years. Here's what the government's own vacancy data actually says, and how to source deals from it instead of the headline.
National Home Prices Grew 2% This Year. Morgantown, West Virginia Grew 12.9% — and Investors Aren't Buying There.
Redfin's July 2026 college-town data shows Morgantown, Syracuse, and Tuscaloosa appreciating 5-6x faster than the national average — while still cheap enough to cash flow. Here's the university-anchored filter for finding the next one, and the demographic-cliff risk to underwrite around it.
Massachusetts Permits Are Up 243%. Florida's Are Down 30%. The "Safe Haven" Story Is Backwards
New Census permit data shows Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Hampshire posting triple-digit year-over-year permit growth while Florida and Texas pull back sharply. The Northeast's scarcity premium — the reason investors are rotating away from the Sun Belt — is the exact signal builders are now racing to erase.