Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
The 10-Year Just Closed at 5.29%, Its Highest in 19 Years. New York Apartments Still Trade at a 5 Cap.
CBRE asked 200 dealmakers where the 10-year had to go for deals to pencil. They said 3.75%. It went the other way by 154 basis points.
The 10-year Treasury closed the third quarter at 5.29%, its highest in 19 years, while CBRE's own survey has stabilized New York multifamily trading at a 5.0% to 5.5% cap rate. The risk premium for owning a building instead of a government bond is now roughly zero, and in part of that band it is negative. Here is the arithmetic on what has to reprice, why the debt market closes the trap, and the five PropGPT lists to build before sellers accept the math.
There Are 12.3 Million Assumable Mortgages. Federal Law Bars Investors From 8.1 Million of Them.
Every assumable-mortgage pitch quotes 12 million government-backed loans at 3%. HUD's own handbook bars private investors from the 8.1 million FHA loans in that number. The 4.2 million VA loans are wide open, with no occupancy requirement, a servicer that cannot refuse to process the request, and a 2024 VA circular telling lenders how to structure the second lien. In all of 2023, buyers closed 2,244 of them.
Foreclosure Volumes Are “Historically Low.” Banks Just Repossessed 42% More Homes Than Last August, and Texas Took a Third of Them.
ATTOM's August report shows completed foreclosures up 42% year over year to 5,794, with Texas alone taking 1,835 of them. Underneath it, MBA's Q2 survey shows FHA serious delinquencies up 227 basis points against 6 for conventional. Here's why the national average is hiding a single-program credit failure, which states convert it into buyable inventory first, and the PropGPT screens that build your 2027 acquisition list now.
Home Values Fell 1.7%. Tax Bills Rose 3%. Fewer Than 5% of Owners Bothered to Appeal.
ATTOM's latest annual analysis shows the average single-family home lost 1.7% of its value while its tax bill rose 3%, pushing the effective rate to its highest level since 2020. Census data shows property tax collections compounding at 4% against a price index growing 1.6%. Here's how to read your assessment, build the comp exhibit that wins an appeal, and what it's worth in NOI and enterprise value.
Apartment Completions Just Fell 35.7%. The Rent Glut Everyone Is Still Underwriting Is Already Over.
The Census Bureau's August construction report shows buildings with five or more units finishing at a 302,000 annual rate, down 35.7% from a year earlier, while unbuilt apartment permits rose 15.3% and the Fed raised rates the day before. Meanwhile national rents have risen seven straight months and vacancy just turned down. Here's why the Sun Belt markets with the worst trailing rents are the ones to shop now, and a dated call on when national rent growth turns positive.
Everyone Spent 2026 Waiting for a Rate Cut. Wall Street Just Put 89% Odds on a Hike Wednesday Instead.
Markets put the odds of a Fed rate increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting near 89%, which would be the first hike in 1,147 days. There are two clocks running on leveraged real estate and most investors are confusing them: prime-indexed debt reprices within a billing cycle, while an ARM written today does not reset until 2031. Here is what a quarter-point move actually costs, and why underwriting a 2027 refinance exit is now the most crowded bad bet in real estate.
Mortgage Rates Hit 7.06% This Week. Builders Already Cut Their Prices 6% — For the 16th Month Straight.
NAHB's August data shows 35% of builders cutting prices an average of 6% and 63% stacking incentives — the 16th straight month of both — while mortgage rates climbed to 7.06% ahead of the Fed's September meeting. Here's why the builder discount already on the table beats waiting on a rate cut, and how to find it by metro.
Compass, Redfin and Seven Other Brokerages Just Bought Their Way Out of the Commission Lawsuits for $110 Million. Buyer's Agent Fees Are Higher Than the Day the New Rules Started.
The Eighth Circuit affirmed the $110.6 million Gibson brokerage settlements on Sept. 1, closing out a billion dollars in commission-lawsuit deals. Two years into the new rules, buyer's agent fees are higher than the quarter they took effect. What the ruling changed for agents, sellers and buyers, and where the leverage actually sits now.
The Census Bureau Says New Home Sales Cratered 10.5%. Its Own Footnote Says That Might Be Zero.
The Census Bureau's July new home sales report shows a 10.5% monthly drop — but its own 90% confidence interval says that number could actually be anywhere from -24.5% to +3.5%, statistically indistinguishable from zero. We break down which numbers in the release are real (a confirmed Midwest collapse, a confirmed rise in builder inventory) and which are noise the entire housing press ran with anyway.
Zillow Paid $100 Million to Make Its Only Rival Disappear. Prices Rose 14.5%. The 'Fix' Doesn't Land Until 2027.
The FTC ruled this week that Zillow's 2025 deal to pay Redfin $100 million to exit the rental-listing market was an illegal payoff that drove ad prices up 14.5%. The settlement forces Redfin back into the business — but not for six months, and real competition doesn't show up until 2027. Here's why property managers and investors shouldn't underwrite relief that hasn't arrived yet.
Treasury Just Spent $4 Billion to Fix Your Mortgage Rate. The Relief Lasted One Day.
On August 19, Treasury doubled its long-bond buyback size to $4 billion to fight rising yields, and mortgage-linked rates dipped immediately. By August 20, yields had already rebounded. This piece breaks down the mechanism (a short-term-debt-funded swap, not new money), what economists are calling it ("symbolic," a "very small-scale Operation Twist"), and why investors shouldn't underwrite deals on the assumption that relief is coming.
Home Equity Hit $18 Trillion This Quarter. In Cape Coral, 1 in 9 Homeowners Owe More Than Their House Is Worth.
ICE's August 2026 Mortgage Monitor reported a record $18 trillion in U.S. mortgage holder equity — and, in the same release, a 44% year-over-year jump in underwater borrowers concentrated in Texas and Florida. Here's how to find the specific FHA/VA, 2022-2025-vintage buyers behind that number before the rest of the market catches on.