Field notes for real-estate investors.
Deep dives on data, markets, and the craft of finding deals most people miss. Published daily.
Category: market-news · clear
NAR Cut the 2026 Forecast by 72% — But Pending Sales Just Hit a Multi-Year High
NAR slashed its 2026 existing-home-sales forecast from a projected 14% growth to just 4% — a 72% downgrade — while weekly pending sales hit 80,258, a multi-year high for this point in the calendar. This piece unpacks the contradiction, maps where the deal flow is actually appearing, and gives investors five PropGPT prompts to turn the NAR data into sourcing and underwriting advantages right now.
New Fed Chair, Same Problem: Why Mortgage Rates Won't Fall When Kevin Warsh Takes Over May 15
Kevin Warsh takes over the Federal Reserve on May 15, but investors betting on immediate mortgage rate relief are likely to be disappointed. This piece breaks down the mortgage-spread mechanism that keeps 30-year rates elevated even after Fed cuts — and shows exactly how to use PropGPT to stress-test your deals for the rate environment that actually exists.
1 in 3 Spring Sellers Are Finally Giving Up Their Sub-5% Mortgage. Here's the Investor Playbook.
A Coldwell Banker survey of 727 agents found 35% of spring 2026 sellers hold sub-5% mortgage rates and are listing anyway. With active inventory at 964,000 listings — up 8% year-over-year — and pending sales rising for the second straight month, the rate lock-in effect is finally cracking. This piece maps where the unlock is happening fastest, how to target extended-market-time listings where seller psychology is shifting, and when to have the subject-to conversation that most buyers never even attempt.
The 2026 Housing Market Outlook: Rates, Inventory, and the Buyer's Return
The 2026 housing market is splitting into two distinct regimes: supply-constrained metros where prices remain sticky, and Sun-Belt markets where inventory build-up is creating genuine buyer leverage. Mortgage rates have settled roughly 150 basis points below their 2024 peak, unlocking transaction volume that was frozen for 18 months. For individual investors, the question is no longer whether to buy, but where the deal-flow environment actually favors patient capital.